dimanche, novembre 21, 2004

Que sera Internet dans 10 ans?
Un groupe d"experts" donne son avis.
La methode d'analyse basée sur le vote de chacun d'entres eux est originale et permet a chacun de donner son avis en fonction des évolutions constatées dans son domaine d'expertise. Le vote permet une synthèse "statistique".

En sus de cette approche, des commentaires provenant de ces experts, illustrent ces tendances.

En terme de resultats, En plus des prédictions deja classiques (place de l'internet central demain dans la maison, modification des methodes educatives, raccordement des objets de tous les jours au net ...), on trouve des considérations intéressantes sur le social networking, l'utilisation du net comme outil terroriste et civique, ou encore sur la multiplication des sources d'informations, noyant l'info pertinente.

à titre d'exemple:

"The dissemination of information will increasingly become the
dissemination of drivel. As more and more data is posted on the internet, there will be
increasingly less information"

ou encore

Ben Compaine, a consultant for the MIT Program on Internet and
Telecoms Convergence, wrote, People will have a wider range of sources - but most
individuals will settle on a small number that they will use repeatedly - much as they use
a small subset of the large number of TV networks available already. Impact on trust
could go either way (or both) - more sources could equal more differences of info could
lead to more confusion and skepticism as easily as more trust."

Un peu ridicule les promotteurs de ce rapport mettent en avant la reponse a cette
question choc:

Prediction: At least one devastating attack will occur in the next 10 years
on the networked information infrastructure or the country's power grid.
Experts' reactions
Agree 66%
Disagree 11
Challenge 7
Did not respond 16

Devastating.... En ces temps de Tsunamis les petits code Red doivent etre fiers ....

On peut d'ailleurs lire:
"If you mean very costly, yes. If you mean a failure that cascades to
other segments of society, with widespread suffering or loss of life, then no."

Concernant l'IP on peut lire ces sentences inquiétantes:

Bob Metcalfe,
inventor of ethernet and founder of 3Com, wrote, "We must and therefore will fix this
problem. Private property is too valuable an economic tool.? Another expert agreed, but
rather more bitterly wrote, "We're headed towards digital prohibition. The bastards are
going to win."

Concernant l'IP toujours mais dans sa version P2P la remarque suivante est marquante:

Eszter Hargittai, a Northwestern University
professor researching the social and policy implications of information technologies,
wrote, "This is not even true in 2004. Use of anon p2p networks is not as easy and as
second-nature to the average user as one may think. Once we study online skills in more
detail we will realize that the average user knows less than academics/journalists tend to

Concernant le l'engagement civil à travers le net:

Ken Jarboe, of the Athena Alliance, a Washington-DC think tank focusing on the social
and economic implications of the internet, summed up many experts' opinions about how
the internet will not alleviate the time crunch: The internet will give people a greater
ability to participate - but our limited amount of time (and limited interest) will continue
to be barriers to further participation. There are still only 24 hours in the day - and many,
many other demands on our time."

Et de maniere generale mais tellement fondée:

"Even when some activity belongs to just 1
in a million persons, it means there are
6,000 of those people in the world. The
internet allows those 6,000 people to find
one another more quickly and easily."
Anonymous respondent

Et si moi aussi je trouvais des lecteurs alors?? ;o)

Concernant l'aspect big brother futur j'ai aimé cette remarque

Susan Crawford, a law professor and policy fellow with the Center for Democracy &
Technology, foresees a different consequence: "It seems to me that most of this
surveillance will be private in nature, and that private firms will be unwilling to make
their databases widely available. I agree there will be lots of surveillance, but I don't see it
being turned over to government authorities. Instead, it will be used to market to us in
ever-more-personalized ways."

Ceci dit toute la problématique liée à echelon , entres autres, contredit un peu ceci à mon sens, mais bon elle est professeur de droit apres tout! :)

une reponse attendue , entendue et neanmoins interessante est:
Prediction: By 2014, as telework and home-schooling expand, the
boundaries between work and leisure will diminish significantly. This will
sharply alter everyday family dynamics.
Experts' reactions
Agree 56%
Disagree 17
Challenge 9
Did not respond 18

Une remarque:
"I think it is naive to view the technology in isolation; family dynamics;
economic and social considerations will trump this prediction - ten years is too fast to
expect such change. Perhaps in two decades, but this extrapolation does not seem
consistent with America's past tech influences on lives."

Concernant le developpement des groupes fanatiques sur le net:

One expert wrote, "The internet is a medium not a motivator. It is possible however that
the relative anonymity of the internet will allow people to voice notions that would not be
tolerated in polite -arms-reach- society, thus more vitriol could be expressed without fear
of social opprobrium normally expected when meeting with others face to face. In this
sense the internet is like graffiti, only it can be targeted to the right niche."

ou encore:

"This is an interesting
prediction. I tend to agree with it because the internet, having broken boundaries of
geography and linear time, enables niche groups to reach a 'critical mass' much more
quickly and conveniently than in previous generations. But of course the zealots are not
limited to religion and politics - they also include the quilters and the Star Wars fans and
the peaceniks. The internet itself is agnostic, and so should be your question."

Et en gros c'est tout sur ce sujet. Et la, soit le rapporteur n'a pas tout rapporté, soit les
experts ne vivent pas dans le meme monde que moi (ce qui est certain! :o) )

Personne n'a pensé à dire que dans un monde fait de conflits, l'accès progressifs de certaines
societés au net, mettrait forcement en avant des points de vue jugés extrémes par d'autres...

Il faut pour s'en convaincre faire lire aljazeera à un américain lambda.
Et ce en gardant a l'esprit que c'est un journal extremement mesuré par rapport a l'opinion générale de "la rue arabe"....

Concernant la créativité on a:

Prediction: Pervasive high-speed information networks will usher in an
age of creativity in which people use the internet to collaborate with
others and take advantage of digital libraries to make more music, art,
and literature. A large body of independently-produced creative works
will be freely circulated online and will command widespread attention
from the public.
Experts' reactions
Agree 54%
Disagree 18
Challenge 9
Did not respond 20

Avec les commentaires pertinents ( :o) ) suivants:

"Music, art, and literature.
Yeah right. The only thing broadband will bring to the public is uncensored reality
schlock shows and porn." Another expert wrote, "Humanity has had books for hundreds
of years, but does not have universal literacy. Creativity may bloom but that does not
mean it will be seen or appreciated by all."
One respondent wrote, "The internet overcomes the simple problem of disseminating
information, but it vastly increases the problem of overcoming information clutter and
overload. Marketing and publicity remain critical, whether provided by today's record
labels, by a completely altruistic co-op of like-minded artists, or anything in between."
However, there were observers who believe that an "age of creativity" is possible. For
example, one wrote, -Modern art was largely spurred by a reaction to photography.
Artists adapt to new media, and will adapt to the internet."

Concernant le coup d'oeil en arriere je ne resiste pas à la tentation de tout mettre :

Where has the internet fallen short of expectations
Since so many of the experts we contacted were early adopters of the internet, we asked
them to think back to their views a decade ago and assess where the use or impact of the
internet has fallen short of expectations. Many experts are disappointed that spam and
viruses have proliferated without check. The digital divide vexes quite a few experts.
Many observe that education, health care, and civic life have not adopted the internet as
quickly as they had hoped. Others wish that download speeds were even faster and are
looking forward to a ?video internet.? And a number of experts said the internet is just
about as they had imagined it would be.
Here are some examples of the experts' thoughts on this question and a fuller rundown of
written responses can be found at http://www.elon.edu/predictions/q22.aspx and at
1.Education " I thought distance learning would be more widespread.

2. Elections "I thought we would get to online voting sooner.
3. E-commerce " I thought that online commerce would have a more devastating impact on local commerce and local taxation." Charles M. Firestone, executive director of the Aspen Institute
"I did not expect that porn and objectionable content would have as large an impact
as it has had on so many." Anonymous respondent
"Politics still sucks. America's getting more totalitarian even as the populace is
dancing in the streets to downloaded music" Anonymous respondent
"As with radio, most of the hoped-for educational impact of the Internet didn't
materialize." Simson L. Garfinkel, an authority on computer security and columnist
for Technology Review
"We forgot to build the Internet with enough security and economics." Anonymous
"As I feared, bland content from large media companies dominates too much. There
is great creativity from a wide range of sources, and it does get noticed and it does
have an impact. But the balance is not where I would like it to be." Anonymous
Future of the Internet - 43 - Pew Internet & American Life Project
Part 17. Looking back, looking forward
"It has exceeded my expectations for certain demographic segments of the world's
population. As expected, most people in the world are unaffected by the advent of
the Internet." Anonymous respondent
Many respondents had been very generous with their time and some were clearly
growing tired of typing full sentences: "Enhanced democracy: NOT. Enriched sense of
community: NOT. Public space for learning: a mix but mostly commercial."
What impacts have been felt more quickly than expected?
Experts wrote with evident delight about the explosion of e-commerce, smart searches,
mobile communication, and peer-to-peer file sharing. Others shared their disappointment
that spam, identity theft, and other online pests have moved so quickly toward
dominance. For example:
"The astounding array of information available on the Internet is much larger than
anyone could have ever expected." Anonymous respondent
"The rise of the Web is astonishing. In 1992 (I have slides from a talk that year) we
were not sure that the Web would win out over competitors such as WAIS, archie or
gopher. The transformation of the telephone industry has gone faster than I thought."
Anonymous respondent
"E-mail was expected. The Web took us completely by surprise." Anonymous
"I don't subscribe to a newspaper anymore. I don't shop at retail stores nearly as
often, or the bank. I don't buy reference books or go the library. I don't use the phone
as much." Anonymous respondent
"I would never have imagined blogs, or that I would have one of my own. On the
other hand, I spend much more time doing fairly routine work (such as scheduling
meetings) online. The nuisances, like spam, viruses, and comment spam, are worse
than I would have predicted." Peter Levine, deputy director of the Center for
Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at the University of
"The assumption, by the wired intelligentsia, that they can find out pretty much
anything on Google." Dan Froomkin, a columnist for washingtonpost.com and
deputy editor of niemanwatchdog.org

Etude à lire et à relire donc ...

Aucun commentaire: